Fedrick Nwabufor,
Dynasties rise and fall. It is a natural order.
But there are
factors which precipitate the declension of dynasties. For example, the
rise and fall of Chinese dynasties was influenced by changes in weather
conditions such as drought and famine.
When the people are starving and
dying of thirst they revolt against their emperors.
The eclipsing of
Senate President Bukola Saraki in Kwara state
reinforces the power of citizens’ revolt. Mass revolts through the ballot are still potent. It is evident the people of the state have simply grown weary of a unilateral influence and control.
reinforces the power of citizens’ revolt. Mass revolts through the ballot are still potent. It is evident the people of the state have simply grown weary of a unilateral influence and control.
According to an
analysis by TheCable, many of the voters did not even know who Saraki’s
challenger was. They were poignantly driven by a slogan, which resonated
with them, “O to ge”.
I believe the
excruciating defeat of Saraki in Kwara marks the end of a political era
in the state. But is there another political dynasty of which sunset is
nigh?
The voting pattern
in the south-west in the presidential election shows that the Jagaban
political dynasty may be seeing its last days. Unlike in the 2015
presidential election, where the south-west bloc-voted for the APC,
though with the PDP winning in Ekiti state, the 2019 election voting
distribution is a departure from the norm.
According to the
results released by INEC so far, the PDP won in Ondo state; surprisingly
made a very good show in Osun state, and it won in Oyo state as well.
This shows that the south-west is conscientious about its actions and it
is shaking off the fetters of unilateral influence and control.
I could imagine the
Jagaban of Borgu at the height of his powers in the early 2000s, when he
dictated the pace and play of politics in the south-west. Wherever he
goes, the region goes.
In September, 2018,
after the Osun gubernatorial election, I wrote that the outcome of the
exercise showed the waning influence of the Jagaban. The 2019
presidential election voting distribution in the south-west accents this
position.
Besides this, is
there no possibility that President Buhari will consign the Jagaban to a
space of irrelevance when he returns like he did after the 2015
elections? Remi Tinubu had once at the senate chamber lamented of how
the Jagaban was relegated to the background immediately after the APC
won the election.
It is really hard to say. But the rain falls even after a long period of sunshine.
Nigerians will eventually be free.
Fredrick is a media personality.
Twitter: @FredrickNwabufo
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